Sunday, October 19, 2008

Tick tock, tick tock...

A year or so ago, I read that President Bush would likely solve the Iran issue before leaving office. In three months his successor will assume the presidency, and all of America's problems will fall on him.

As of right now, our armed forces are positioned favorably for military action against Iran with huge contingencies surrounding them, from the west in Iraq to the east in Afghanistan. Under the guise of troop rotation for the war in Iraq, we could conceivably float another entire fleet to within a few hundred miles of the Strait of Hormuz without raising the suspicion or ire of any potentially hostile nation. The fleet would have the capability of hitting targets using sortees and laser-guided bombs, ground-penetrating bunker buster bombs, and should the need arise, cruise missiles with a nuclear payload.

An Obama Administration would likely begin a reduction in troops deployed in Iraq shortly after January 20, whereas McCain would be apt to leave existing forces in place for a while longer. Since polls currently favor Obama by an electable margin, let's assume he will be the next Commander in Chief. (Excuse me while I get a fresh vomit bag.) This man has already indicated that he will talk with anyone -- North Korea, Iran, Al-Qaeda, and probably Mohamed Atta if he could find his ashes somewhere in Manhattan. Since I believe there are some people whose opinions matter so little that I don't ever wish to hear them, I question the value of this tactic. Iran, a nation to which Obama (or was it Biden?) suggested we give a good-will donation of several hundred million dollars (why?), detests the United States with unquenchable passion. This is a nation whose leaders have threatened Israel with annihilation, and whose president has boldly invited that we "imagine a world without the United States and Israel."

Love him, loathe him, or somewhere-in-between him, President Bush is the man to handle Iran. But the clock is ticking, and the nightmare of passing the torch to Obama so he can botch a showdown with the Iranian military is horribly reminiscent of the way Jimmy Carter "handled" Iran. (Remember Iranian troops parading American GIs' body parts on their state-run TV after US helicopter gunships crashed in the desert outside of Tehran in a quasi-attempt to rescue Americans held hostage at our embassy for 444 days? We appeared to the world to be an inept laughingstock under Carter, and I expect even less from Obama.)

I have no doubt President Ahmadinejad, the psychopath from Tehran, is busy weighing all of this with his generals. This might explain why we are witnessing increased cooperation with Russia, an alliance foretold in the Bible, a collusion that had never existed prior to a few years ago. Ahmadinejad might be raising the ante along with the cost of a US-led invasion. (Considering how many oil-thirsty countries depend on Iran's oil, the "coalition" might consist only of the US and Israel, or perhaps unilateral action by the United States.)

If I were an advising general in the Iranian armed forces, I might strike the US before Bush can make good on his promise. With Shahab-III missiles carrying Pakistani (or North Korean or Russian or Chinese or even Iranian) nuclear warheads, this might be a good time to float a cargo ship alongside one of our coastlines and detonate a nuke fifty miles over the American heartland. The resulting electromagnetic pulse would cripple us, but our demise would send economic repercussions throughout the entire planet. With zero US oil consumption, the price of a barrel of oil -- hence the wealth of the Persian state -- could dwindle to lows never before seen by OPEC. What remained of the American military machine might target Iran with an obligatory "nothing to lose" nuclear strike.

Anticipating this possibility, perhaps moderate, clear-thinking Iranian advisers could conceivably opt for a less aggressive but equally egregious approach. Bogging down the American dollar would disinvite a US military strike since any military action would tax our struggling economy further. Ahmadinejad may be secretly laughing at us since Bush may not be in any position to fulfill his promise against Iran. With this in mind, he could ratchet up the pressure on the greenback by flooding the world with counterfeit US hundred-dollar-bills (they and the North Koreans are already doing this), and readying his sleeper cells who are currently dormant on our homeland. A well-choreographed, multi-pronged domestic attack could turn our focus inward to the point of nearly complete disinterest with Iran. Simultaneous large-scale terrorist attacks in a dozen major US cities, compounded by a reeling economy, a decimated stock market, and the confusion of a change of US administration, might render America the Paper Tiger much of the world has come to regard us as.

While Al-Qaeda and Iran are not one and the same, they share a common goal by virtue of sharing common enemies, and would eagerly cooperate in a brash move against our homeland. Any number of weapons -- handguns, AK-47 assault rifles, suitcase nukes, RPGs, shoulder-fired stinger missiles -- could be brought into the US with the assistance of Columbian and Mexican gangs. Once given the go-ahead via a TV broadcast or a post on some surreptitious website, the enemy might start by tossing a few hundred pounds of cyanide into the water supply of each US city with a population greater than, say, a half-million; then unleash hundreds of machine-gun-toting sleeper agents into crowded malls and grid-locked intersections during rush hour; and top it off with a few hundred private planes crop dusting our defenseless citizens with weaponized botulinum toxin, anthrax, ebola virus, smallpox... the list is endless.

If you think this is frightening, consider that I am just a lone voice, on par with Joe the Plumber, and am privy to nothing more than a fertile imagination. If I really knew what I was talking about, we would be in a world of hurt.

And if Obama does to the Second Amendment what he has promised he would do, I wouldn't be able to protest with anything larger than a BB-gun.

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